How Calculating Forex Probability Helped My Trading - ECS ...

How to be profitable in Forex: High-probability trading.

Hello guys,
I see a lot of posts here either of new traders or non-profitable traders. Some people here even believe trading is gambling and it is impossible to be constantly profitable. I have been trading forex for a few years now and I have fallen into every trap you could imagine: Overtrading, too many indicators, no backtesting, anger trades, etc.. burned a few accounts and finally managed to be constantly profitable on a large period of time. That is why I decided to make a very quick guide on how I think everyone can achieve profitability.
High-probability trading is a very simple concept: Only take trades when stars align. I'd recommend focusing on a very few setups that have proven to be profitable, and to not trade if the setup isn't perfect. If you think there is a slight chance you could lose a trade, then do not take it. The most important rule is to have 100% confidence in your trades, so you are not disappointed when you lose one because you know you followed your guidances.
I am a full-time trader. I mostly look at the 5-minutes, 15-minutes, and 1-hour charts, and I watch all major currency pairs 10 hours a day. You'd assume I take a lot of trades because so many setups form each day, well I do not. I take 2 to 3 trades a week for a duration of 1 to 4 hours per trade. But because these trades are more likely to be profitable, I have a good monthly return.
Now we all have our own strategy and I'm not here to review yours. Just think of how you could make your strategy a high-probability one. If you take a trade at each trading session and you have less than 65% of winning rate, then you can certainly improve your guidances. Here are the two most important rules you must follow:
- Always trade with the trend on all your timeframes, and at least a higher one. If I take a trade on the 5-minutes, 15-minutes and 1-hour charts, I want to make sure I'm with the 5-minutes, 15-minutes, 1-hour and 4-hour trends. A 200-periods exponential moving average on each timeframe should do the trick to ensure that.
- Confluence. This is for me the most profitable rule of trading. Confluence is when you have two or more levels coming together and therefore making a confluence point. For example, if you are trading the retest of a bullish trendline on the 1-hour chart, a confluence point could be where the price: retests the 1-hour bull trendline, breaks the 15-minutes bear trendline, retests the 1-hour 50-period EMA, breaks the 15-minutes 50-period EMA with a bullish marubozu candlestick, with an RSI bullish divergence at an oversold level, and a retest of a support. Now this would be a crazy setup, but even when a few stars align in a confluence point the trade is high-probability.
Thank you for reading.
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Forex Factory is a goldmine of information and resources. It’s the largest trading forum out there. However, there is a lot of subpar information to wade through. I’m going to help you use it to your benefit. This article will give you multiple ideas on how to use Forex Factory and ultimately improve your trading. Read on.. Embrace the odds in your trading "Probability is not a mere computation of odds on the dice or more complicated variants; it is the acceptance of the lack of certainty in our knowledge and the ... So, for testing a forex-trading strategy by estimating the results from sample trades, the system developer must analyze at least 30 trades in order to reach statistically-reliable conclusions regarding the parameters being tested. Likewise, the results from a study of 500 trades are more reliable than those from an analysis of only 50 trades. Dispersion and mathematical expectation to ... Probabilities are just that; probable. They are not definite or guaranteed and this is why traders must use money management and risk control, ie; never bet the farm on any one trade. High probability trading refers to the likelihood of whether a trade will win or not. Making high probability trades is crucial for a successful trader because no matter how great the trader is, they will have ... High Probability Trading would be the closest thing to a forex holy grail, right? Maybe not. But what is high probability trading and what does it involve? Are there any high probability forex trading strategies around?. Well, let see, shall we? But before you go any further, you need to understand what high probability trading is. Of course, a trading decision is more complicated than a coin flip. And yet, it all comes to probability. The goal of a trader is to build a trading system with a positive expectation and combine ... Using high probability forex trading strategies has enormous advantages for trading psychology. First of all, it does not cost a trader any money. Most importantly, traders do not have to worry about missing a setup, chasing a setup, entering a setup too soon, etc. It is an enormous help for remaining patient and keeping the discipline needed to succeed in trading. Plus traders can avoid ... Often trading systems do well in a small window of measurement but they are not able to provide a consistent edge in the long run. This article will attempt to clarify what Forex traders can do to calculate and improve their odds when trading. Let’s start. Difficulties with Probability Calculations. Traders are often focused on making sure that the current setup will end up for a win. They ... Trading probabilities are often discussed, but there is an abysmal capacity for humans to understand and calculate probabilities. Forex has much to do with risk analysis and probability. No single method or style is available that will generate profits all the time. The secret to success is to position ourselves so that the losses, while the gains are compounded, are harmless. Such a ... Trading is thinking in probabilities and finding setups that make money over 100, 1,000 or 10,000x. You have to understand, that you may not make money on the trade right now, or even the next one, but if it makes money over the long run ( has positive expectancy ) then you need to pull the trigger.

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